China’s exports in 2025 are expected to remain at elevated levels, though not necessarily as high as in 2024, due to increasing trade barriers over Chinese imports and steel capacity expansion in Southeast Asia, one of the top destinations of Chinese exports.

China’s rising exports over the past few years attracted more scrutiny over the impact of Chinese steel on local industry and led to antidumping measures from top destinations, including Vietnam and South Korea.

Also, the upcoming US administration has added some uncertainty over Chinese exports, with anticipation of more tariffs and regulations to restrict Chinese exports from indirectly entering the US market via other destinations, for example, Vietnam and Brazil.

Those trade barriers would cast negative effect on Chinese export volumes once implemented and force buyers to consider potential antidumping duty risks even under the investigation stage, sources said. More trade cases may open in the coming year to curb Chinese import influx.

Meanwhile, steel capacity expansions, especially those in Southeast Asia, would be eating into Chinese share of local markets. Malaysia and Indonesia have set up rerolling lines successfully in 2024 and would see production ramping up in 2025, with a total HRC capacity of 4 million mt/year.